As American as Apple pie chart

By David Mullen

On June 8, 1966, the National Football League and American Football League agreed to merge the two separately run leagues, creating a combined and realigned single league to start in 1970. The “new” NFL would be split into two conferences named the NFC and the AFC. While few can question the overall success of the unification, it has come with adjustments.

Traditional annual rivalries like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles — two teams at opposite ends of Pennsylvania — would now face each other occasionally. In 1970, the Baltimore Colts (now Indianapolis), Steelers and the Cleveland Browns would move to the new AFC. The expansion Seattle Seahawks would join the NFC in 1976, move to the AFC in 1977 and return to the NFC in 2002.   

The NFL would become a spreadsheet, as American as an Apple pie chart. Teams face their division foes twice each year and then face another random division, assuring that all 32 teams play each other every four years. The league claims “it takes hundreds of computers and five NFL executives to create the NFL’s 272-game masterpiece.”

A Monet is a masterpiece. The NFL schedule is an NFT. 

Since 1971, the two Super Bowl combatants have faced each other during the regular season 14 times, including last season. The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-24 in the 2020 regular season, but were thumped by Tom Brady and the Bucs 31-9 in Super Bowl LV. It is like meeting someone again for the very first time.

The reason out-of-division play is so important is because it affects a team’s overall record. Division winners and non-division winners with the best records make the playoffs. There is an advantage for teams in one division to draw an inferior division on the schedule.

Last season, the AFC North played the NFC East. The AFC North went 11-4-1 again non-division opponents and sent three teams to the playoffs with at least an 11-5 regular season record. The NFC East’s lone playoff representative were the still unnamed Washington Football Team (WFT) with a 7-9 record. Hey WFT, WTF? Maybe their new name will be the D.C. Dreck. 

In 2021, the NFL goes to a 17-game schedule for the first time in its history, not to balance play, but balance ledgers. Exhibition games are immaterial. Regular season games are moneymakers. Because of the imbalance, this year the AFC plays nine home games and eight on the road and plays one exhibition game at home and two on the road. It’s like finding North Central Expressway without traffic.

Last year at this time, I picked the Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills to win their divisions, the New England Patriots, Steelers and Colts to be wild card teams and the Chiefs to win the AFC. The Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Steelers and Colts qualified, but the Tennessee Titans won the AFC South, and the Browns beat out the Pats as they unraveled like one of Bill Belichick’s hoodie sleeves.  

In choosing the AFC winner for the 2021 season, let’s return to the NFL schedule. Of the five teams with the easiest schedule based on last season’s winning percentages, the Colts, Bills, Chiefs, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos have the honors. All but Denver has a playoff worthy team in 2021.

The Bills should trample the competition in the AFC East, as they are young, talented and have a (Buffalo?) chip on their shoulders. They are known as the ultimate losers, because they lost four straight Super Bowls. They are also the only team to play in four straight Super Bowls. They need a stronger running game, but QB Josh Allen to WR Stefon Diggs is lethal. Miami is improving, and their easy schedule may be enough to get them in. The Pats are regressing, and the New York Jets remain stalled.

In the AFC North, there will be a changing of the guard. Baltimore is synonymous with defense, and QB Lamar Jackson wins 80 percent of his games. The Cleveland Browns are good. Those five words have not been uttered since the days of Bernie Kosar and Earnest Byner. Remember, the Browns beat the Steelers in the Wild Card round in January, and the Chiefs had to hold them off in the Divisional Playoff game. I’m not one to underestimate head coach Mike Tomlin, but I think the Steelers are ready for a fall this fall. QB Ben Roethlisberger is an old 39. A healthy QB Joe Burrow may eventually lead the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs, just not this season.       

The Titans became stronger by adding WR Julio Jones but lost defensive coordinator Arthur Smith. The Colts, waiting for a healthy QB Carson Wentz, make it a two-team race. The Jacksonville Jaguars went back to school, adding head coach Urban Meyer and No. 1 overall pick Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence. The Texans are a mess on and off of the field. QB Deshawn Watson appears out for the year, facing more sexual misconduct allegations than Houston has oil companies. The Texans are the worst team in the AFC.

The Chiefs seem unstoppable in the AFC West, which draws the lowly NFC East on the schedule. QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce are becoming one of the best offensive trios in NFL history. Add a stout defense and the Chiefs are again the team to beat in the AFC. The most improved team in the AFC is the Los Angeles Chargers, with second year QB Justin Herbert. Herbert would still be on the bench if head coach Anthony Lynn’s choice — QB Tyrod Taylor — had not been given a pain injection that punctured a lung. Taylor is now in Houston, Lynn was fired, 38-year-old Brandon Staley takes over as coach, and the team doctor became a professional dart thrower. 

In another lost season, the Las Vegas Raiders offensive line was a bright spot. So, the team dismantled it in the off season. It’s as if GM Mike Mayock and head coach Jon Gruden don’t want QB Derek Carr to succeed. The team remains fodder, with a lot of individual players who look scrumptious on paper but together become slop. The Broncos look forward to the return of Dallas’ own LB Von Miller on defense but look to either QB Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Luck to lead the offense. Head coach Vic Fangio will be the first coach fired this season.

I think the Bills, Browns, Titans and Chiefs will win their divisions, with wild card teams representing Indianapolis, Baltimore and San Diego (even though they play in LA). And for the first time since 1994, the Bills will make the Super Bowl. Cold beer and hot wing specials reign in Western New York. Next week, we look at the NFC, the local team’s chances and which team will fly into LAX for Super Bowl LVI in LA. Spoiler alert: It won’t be the local team.