Cowboys can’t find road to Super Bowl

By David Mullen

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones believed his team could go to Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles on February 13. For Jones, the sign on his covered wagon, or more likely, his $250 million, 357-foot yacht Bravo Eugenia, read “Super Bowl or Bust.”

Jones was delirious after the 2021 NFC season, when his Cowboys went 12-5 and had the No. 1 offense in the NFL. Then, in true Cowboys fashion, the wheels fell off the wagon before it was packed to head west. The Cowboys lost at home 23-17 to the sixth-seeded San Francisco 49ers in the Super Wild Card Game on January 16. 

While shocking to many, the Cowboys’ first-round loss should have been foreseen. They were often slow starters, evidenced by the 49ers 23-7 fourth-quarter lead in the fourth quarter. Head coach Mike McCarthy and QB Dak Prescott are notoriously bad clock managers. Fourteen seconds left with the ball inside San Francisco territory may seem eternal to coaches like Bill Belichick or the late John Madden or QBs like Joe Montana or Tom Brady but feel transient for McCarthy and Prescott. 

After Prescott ran to the Niners’ 24-yard line and remained in bounds, he needed to stop the clock for one more play. The Cowboys were out of timeouts and the official had to set the ball before Prescott could spike it. Time expired, and as it has every season since 1996, Jones’ Super Bowl dream went bust.

After the loss to San Francisco, McCarthy said, “We shouldn’t have had any issue getting the ball spotted.” Maybe, if McCarthy had worked on it in practice. Prescott said, “We definitely underachieved, and it sucks.” Prescott is paid $31 million per year to achieve and not suck.

As GM, Jones may hold the reigns, but he may have the wrong guys steering the wagon. The Cowboys have gone 18-15 in two seasons under McCarthy. In his career, Prescott has one playoff win. Brady has 35. 

In breaking down their 12-win 2021 season, the Cowboys were 2-4 against playoff teams, and those two wins were against the Philadelphia Eagles. This was a 12-win team in name only and was a division champion because of an easy schedule within the NFC East. Quality wins make a Super Bowl team. 

Dallas begins the 2022 season with home games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals and the Washington Commanders and road games against the New York Giants, defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams and the improved Eagles. A 4-2 record is optimistic, 3-3 is probable and a 2-4 record is quite possible. 

A start of 4-2 or better and Jones and fans will start hitching their wagons to thoughts of Super Bowl LVII on February 12, 2023, in Glendale, Ariz. A start of 2-4 or worse, and it will be a fiasco in Frisco. 

The Cowboys have arguably the best young defensive player in the NFL with Micah Parsons, but the rest of the defense has regressed. One can’t expect the takeaway advantage they had in 2021. Prescott has less wide receiver firepower with Amari Cooper gone to Cleveland and Michael Gallop not ready to break from the gates.

The offensive line will be thin with the injury to Tyron Smith. If Prescott faces constant pressure, he could get hurt, again. A Herculean effort from running backs Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard and special teams’ play carried over from the preseason are needed to give the Cowboys a shot at the division title.

Realistically, Dallas will be looking up to Philly this season. Last year’s surprise playoff team is now expected to win. An improving Jalen Hurts, an upgraded receiving corps and a tough defense make the Eagles the team to beat in the NFC East. The Commanders and Giants are nowhere near championship caliber. The Commanders are rudderless with QB Carson Wentz, and the Giants’ future was in this year’s draft.

In the NFC South, it will be Brady’s last stand if, at 45, he will still be able to stand behind a patchwork offensive line. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, they have a good defense. Todd Bowles takes over as head coach for Bruce Arians. They will win a lot of games with a soft schedule, and Brady should be able to practice his next career in broadcasting by the fourth quarter.

Carolina is my surprise team, but the Panthers will have to depend on Christian McCaffrey’s health and Baker Mayfield’s head. Mayfield is best handing off the ball and making cute TV commercials. The New Orleans Saints are marching out. New head coach Dennis Allen has the appeal of bland jambalaya, and offensive star Alvin Kamara faces legal issues. The Atlanta Falcons, unlike the crosstown World Series champion Braves, will avoid a ticker tape parade for another year, although TE Kyle Pitts is a peach.

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers seems to be one unhappy dude, not the profile of someone that grew up in Butte County, went to UC Berkeley likes his hair long, his chin unshaven and his medication organic. But his group of wide receivers — without Davante Adams — look lost, making the Packers vulnerable in the NFC North.

If one believes in QB Kirk Cousins, then the Minnesota Vikings are the pick to spoil the Cheesehead’s thoughts of another division title. New head coach Kevin O’Connell inherits a talented Vikings team that needed direction. The Super Bowl-less Detroit Lions (56 years and counting) and the Chicago Bears offer little challenge. Detroit coach Dan Campbell roars like a lion but his team plays like a lamb. The Bears have talented young QB Justin Fields surrounded by a gaping chasm full of talentless football players.

The Rams will have an easier road to the NFC West crown this season, assuming they don’t lose their edge. Overlooked last season, they will be in everyone’s crosshairs this season. Teams design game plans around how to stop Rams defensive star Aaron Donald. San Francisco has a talented coaching staff that inexplicably botched their quarterback situation by promoting Trey Lance and treating Jimmy Garofalo like a pariah. The team seems unready to start the season.

Arizona also appears to be in disarray, with QB Kyler Murray taking his concerns public. The Cardinals were unbeatable in the first half of 2021 and unbearable in the second half. Which team shows up seals their fate. For the first time in years, the Seattle Seahawks are not competitive, having traded the face of the franchise QB Russell Wilson to Denver. 

Every year since the Cowboys’ last Super Bowl appearance, Jones has touted “Super Bowl or Bust.” Since 1996, 26 different teams have played in the Super Bowl, and none of them had a star on their helmet. 

Make it 27 teams. The Buffalo Bills will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for the first time since 1994. In the NFC, division winners are the Eagles, Buccaneers, Vikings and Rams, with the Panthers, Cardinals and Cowboys — primarily because of Parsons brilliant play — making the Wild Card games. The Rams go to their second consecutive Super Bowl, but Buffalo prevails, and Bills fans will be “circling the wagons” in the snow on Chippawa Street.    

At training camp in Oxnard, Calif., Jones, 79, told reporters, “Well, I need to win [another Super Bowl].” No need to pack the wagon this season.